Syria

In late 2010 there was a wave of protests throughout the Arab World, or at least 18 different countries, with four of those countries seeing their rulers removed and replaced by protesters. This revolutionary wave was essentially in response to authoritarianism, poverty, unemployment, political corruption, among a whole host of other causes, but has ultimately led to riots and civil war. Yemen, Jordan, Libya, and Egypt, to name a few, are countries that have been in international news over the last couple of years – this is in direct conjunction with the Arab Spring. Almost all of these protests have been met with violence on the part of the governments being protested.

There have been an estimated 169,000 – 174,000+ casualty’s altogether, spanning the Arab World – by conservative estimates, Syria accounts for 80% of all casualties. Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen were able to overthrow their governments with a little over 4,000 casualties. Libya on the other hand saw some 30,000 casualties. Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Morocco, Lebanon, and Palestine all saw protests and governmental changes with as little as 15 casualties.

In other words, Syria represents a huge problem for the Arab World, having also displaced anywhere from 4.5 to 5.1 million people, and generated upwards of 3 million refugees. The fighting has spread into Lebanon on numerous occasions, with ground troops and bombings. The fighting has also spread into Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey, leading to destabilization. To put that into perspective, Turkey stood as a model state example having democratic elections, relatively violent free, while also being a Islamic state, with a particularly well off economy in contrast to its Arab neighbors – but this crisis has led to spills of conflict even in this model example – that’s bad. It also doesn’t help Iraq rebuild from almost 10 years of conflict that we helped to perpetuate.

Still, there’s the use of chemical weapons, which to a large extent has been verified to have been used on several occasions over the course of the last year. The Syrian government has also been accused of using cluster bombs, scud missiles, and thermobaric weapons (or fuel-air bombs – the effect on humans basically to mangle the inside of your body – assuming you survive the vacuum and explosion).

The Syrian Government has been supported by Iran, and Russia. Particularly Russia, seeing as many of the weapons supplied to Syria come from Russia. Iran, in fact, has sent over Revolutionary Guard to assist on the ground.

The Syrian Opposition (Free Syrian Army, Syrian Islamic Liberation Front), is supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar – all of which has funded, trained, and given weapons. The U.S., U.K., and France have given primarily financial and humanitarian aid – though the U.S. has promised military aid in a non-combative sense, from weapons, and military training.

Syria represents a possible danger, or such is the argument, with respect to greater military implications involving Iran – to suggest the least…

Many others consider what has occurred in Syria to be genocide on the part of the Syrian Government.

Regardless of where one stands, it’s a real problem with potentially large implications.

British Parliament voted against Prime Minister Cameron’s support of U.S. intentions to strike Syria. The United Nations Security Council has also been reluctant to give the go ahead on a strike.

Referring back to chemical weapons, Syria is not bound by treaties banning the use of chemical weapons, and thanks to Russia, most U.N. attempts to get Syria to do so have failed.

Some also view what’s happening in Syria as a proxy sectarian war that may very well simply distract the U.S. to the advantage of Iran – similar to our scuffles in Afghanistan.

So, I hope this helps you understand the problem. It’s complex, international, and has long term consequences regardless of a military strike or not. We have five ships in the Mediterranean ready to rain hell fire – so I reckon we’ll see.

Russia and Iran have threatened that a U.S., U.K., France, and Australian military response would result in an armed conflict that would engulf the entire region. But then again, that gives Assad free reign to gas people – it’s a moral and ethical dilemma, really.

Suggested Reading:

Syria: President Obama’s Rwanda, by J. Willis & T. Law, Willis & Law Online, February 20th, 2014
Syria and the New Cold War, by Patrick Seale, The Diplomat, February 8th, 2012
“Responsibility to Protect” Can’t Save Syria, by James R. Homles, The Diplomat, February 1st, 2014
Syria and the Capping of Executive War Powers, Robert E. Kelly, The Diplomat, October 7th, 2013
Managing the Endgame in Syria, by Chuck Freilich, The Diplomat, July 29th, 2012