This is hard for me to write. It is rare for an issue to offend literally every sensibility I have, to find an issue that enrages me to the very core of my being. This is one such issue. The civil war in Syria is a wildfire, only instead of firefighters trying to stop it they stand back wondering what to do. The Obama administration has been wrong in virtually every way possible when it comes to Syria and it has cost over 100,000 lives and has displaced over 4 million people. If nothing is done Syria will pull Lebanon, and Iraq into its hellish civil war. Jordan, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and the Gulf states will begin picking sides (some have already done so).
A brief timeline.
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It began March 15, 2011, with a protest against the Assad regime, it was called a Day of Rage. It began to protest some youths who were being held and a peaceful protest was held to support their release.
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Three days later security forces open fire at a protest where an unknown number of activists are killed. This causes protests to spread all over the country.
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April 26, 2011, thousands of soldiers backed by tanks and snipers open fire on civilians in Daraa and two other locations, according to witnesses. Armed security agents conduct house-to-house sweeps. Neighborhoods are sectioned off and checkpoints are erected. Electricity, water and cellphone services are cut. At least 11 people are killed and 14 others lay in the streets, either dead or gravely wounded.
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June 7, 2011, details emerge of a mutiny by Syrian soldiers in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour, where 120 troops were killed, according to the government. This is the first recorded act of violence against the regime, keep in mind it took 4 months of protesters being slaughtered in the streets before they started to fight back. Imagine that, marching against tanks, snipers and machine gun nests, and taking it for four months. Aside from sanctions and tough talk the United States did nothing.
For a more detailed and in depth timeline, Politico has constructed one for you view here.
The earliest known supply of weapons being sent to the Syrian free army is September 12, 2013. The rebels say they have yet to receive these weapons. Keep in mind that since the uprising began in Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have been arming, reinforcing, and aiding the Assad regime from the very beginning, and that is not even including the aid Russia is giving the Assad regime. It is unclear when but sometime in early 2012 foreign fighters began streaming into the country. They lacked the nobility of the Syrian free army who was attempting to make a Democratic state for all Syrians. These new rebel groups have coalesced around two groups, Al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of the Leviant (I.S.I.S.). Both are radical Sunni fundamentalists who wish to force Sharia law on well, everyone. Al-Nusra is violent and responsible for multiple atrocities, The I.S.I.S. is so bloodthirsty that even Al-Qaeda wants nothing to do with them and has condemned them.
So, who is the Assad regime? Before I answer this, here’s some background on Syria. The Assad family has ruled Syria for over 40 years now and they make up a religious minority called the Alawites, who are closely related to the Shia. The Alawite minority makes up 12% of the population Sunni’s make up over 60%. The Assad regime is closely allied to Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. It has a population of 21 million people and is almost twice the size of the state of Tennessee. The Assad regime is ruled by Bashar Al-Assad who has been in power since his father died on June 10, 2000. His government is alleged to have ordered assassinations all over the world and is a known supporter of terrorists organizations. During the war in Iraq it was widely believed that his government encouraged the pipeline of weapons and foreign fighters into Iraq, through Syria. This was all before the Syrian uprising when he started slaughtering his own people.
I told you this just to put into context the scale of how bad the situation is, and of how little this government, the United States government, has done to stop it. I could talk about the two peace conferences the U.S. has helped start, or the President’s bungling of the use of chemical weapons in Syria, but those don’t really matter. I will tell you what does. Snipers use pregnant women as target practice, body parts are shot off of children just to see if a sniper could make the shot. When some of the more violent rebel groups take over a town they drag random men into the street and use a machete to hack off body parts until they are dead. Whole towns of Christians have been executed, whole neighborhoods demolished, there are unconfirmed reports of children becoming soldiers, some as young as 12.
These atrocities lead into another compounding problem about people in the Middle East, which is that the extended family is very important, and extends over borders. A family member killed by group A will cause the whole family to hate group A. It is also why whole communities tend to be destroyed, because a cycle of violence has been started and will demand blood for blood. It will consume a generation of Syrians and it will not stop at borders it will build and grow consuming all nations around it. When I see a growing wildfire my first instinct is to run, but that is the wrong instinct, a plan must be made to fight it at some point, otherwise it will consume you as well.
At one point direct intervention by the United States would have helped this situation, but that time has passed and we watched as the flames of Syria consumed her children and we shrugged our shoulders and did nothing. Now those flames lick at the heels of Lebanon and Iraq, by all accounts this administration will once again shrug its shoulders and do nothing. To be fair the President does have several valid reasons for not intervening. The first being that he was elected on an anti-war platform and many people on the left would see any intervention in Syria as a betrayal of that position. He has also been attacked from the right in this country for attempting to aid the Syrian free army. These attacks are ignorant and incredibly foolish, and only reveals their astounding level of ignorance on Syria. The President himself has many reservations about any intervention, as has been shown by is complete unwillingness to do anything of substance on the issue. The worst part is there are many options to help contain this.
First we must begin a massive effort to arm and train the Lebanese army, if we do this they will be able to control Lebanon, enforce the will of a democratically elected government in Lebanon and most importantly keep the various Sunni militias and Hezbollah from fighting in its country. By doing this we support a democratic government and help the people of Syria by cutting off a huge pipeline of weapons and foreign fighters. Next we help train and pressure the Nouri Al-Maliki government in Iraq. Our inaction over the last three years have pushed him into an informal alliance with Iran, and the Assad regime. This has happened partially because of Iraq’s instability and Maliki’s heavy handed tactics, but with a power and impartial broker it would be very possible to bring the Sunni and Shia factions back to the table and help Iraq heal, while simultaneously creating a bulwark from spreading chaos and slaughter from Syria. Then we begin arming and training the Syrian Free Army, really arming and training them. Not saying one thing and doing another like this administration has done with respect to Syria. These are not good options but they are better than the alternative of doing nothing.
Our other option is we do nothing and watch as the middle east eats itself alive. We will have three failed states (Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria) in the middle of the crossroads of the world, oil prices will spike, unrest will spread, and Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will become increasingly involved. Rebel and terrorist groups will target these respective governments and some will send troops in. What happens when a terrorist group targets Israel? What happens If Saudi Arabia and Iran have a direct confrontation? I am willing to bet that things will spiral out of control, tensions will mount, regional powers will start picking sides, troops will encounter each other, and some 19 year old kid will make the tiniest of mistakes and God only knows what happens then. And please don’t forget that both Russia and the United States have very close ties to multiple countries in the region and either one or both could be drawn into a conflict. Unlike other humanitarian crises in the last 20 years this one has the potential to pull in multiple great powers including the United States. While inaction is tempting, it is not possible. Like a cancer the longer you ignore it the worse it will be.
I called this piece President Obama’s Rwanda, but that is an unfair criticism. Primarily because unlike Syria, Rwanda’s cyclone of violence did not risk starting a major war between great powers. If the humanitarian concerns fall on deaf ears, if the slaughter of the innocent does not prick your heart, then keep this in mind: there are over 1,700 fighters in Syria fighting for jihadi groups, all from Europe. Battle hardened Islamic fundamentalists who will take their skill of violence and mayhem to the next great enemy of the faith. If this sounds familiar look up Afghanistan, because it will be a harbinger of our future, and like the sands of Syria will be bathed in the blood of the innocent. It is unfair because at least inaction from an American President then did not get any Americans killed, you cannot say that about Syria, because one day this war will spread, and this Administration will be judged harshly. The World is watching and history is judging Mr. President.