Putin the Tyrant: An Update on Ukraine

We at Willis and Law feel an update on Ukraine is necessary in light of the Russian occupation of the Crimea. The intent of our first article was to convey that events in Ukraine would by and large affect only Ukraine. Had this been any other part of the world it would have been a major shift in Government for a country and nothing more. We did not take into account that Russia sees Ukraine as part of Russia, and will go to great lengths to ensure its dominance over the Eastern European state.

A little information on the region first. The Crimea is a near island in the south of Ukraine. It is over 60% Russian speaking and is home to the Russian Black Sea fleet. To be clear, many of the people in Crimea probably want to be a part of Russia. I would be surprised if some of the people storming government buildings in Crimea were not from the region. Right now a new government is forming in Crimea. Crimea will first want to be only autonomous from Ukraine. This is what happened in Georgia in 2008 with south Ossetia and Abkhazia. It is possible he might move into western Ukraine which also has a large population of Russian speakers.

Putin has found a system that works. By exploiting local ethnic issues he can move in and annex part of his neighbors. This is not a new strategy, though, as Hitler, Bismarck, and the Czars have used this to great effect. He will undoubtedly try something similar again if given the chance. This is the critical point. There is very little anyone in the west can do to help Ukraine keep Crimea but we can help save Ukraine.

Russia’s actions show something that many in the West thought was over. The mentality of Empire. An empire does not just see national boundaries, it sees spheres of influence. An empire will annex parts of its neighbors and call it a liberation. An empire cares more about prestige than what is best for its own people. An empire does not care about words like democracy and rights, only power. Russia is an empire in all but name, and it is time we started treating it as such.

How does one treat an empire? The first thing you don’t do is break off talks in areas of agreements and this means putting up with them in talks on Iran, North Korea, and Syria. The Russians do not want to see a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction any more than we do and we should still work with them to limit this spread. Next, sanctions, big ones, specifically on Russian natural gas and oil. With the shale oil boom we should give european firms preferential treatment so they can start getting their oil and natural gas from the U.S. instead of having to rely on the Russians. Next, begin putting N.A.T.O. troops in Poland and the Baltic states, as well as offer immediate assistance to Georgia and Ukraine so that Russia cannot simply march into these nations whenever it feels like it. We should also offer immediate financial assistance to the Ukrainian government has it struggles to build a working economy. A strong Ukraine will make it harder for Putin to annex anymore of it. All of this put together will show that the West is not going put up with anymore of Russia’s territorial ambitions in the region, and he will have to cause world war 3 to realize them.

With all that being said however, Crimea is lost to Ukraine. With a majority of the population in favor of a Russian occupation it is hard to see how Ukraine could retake it without outside assistance and the west will not risk war with Russia over Crimea. We can however stop the bleeding ,and right now that is what we must begin doing. The time for Criticizing Putin is over, now is the time for action, that is the only thing that will stop Russian aggression in the region.

Ukraine: Why It’s Not As Big As You Think

Kiev Protests, November 27th, 2013. Image, courtesy of Oxlaey.com (retrieved, February 23rd, 2014, Attribution Licence, no changes were made).

Ukraine, a former Soviet Republic, is caught between a rock and a hard place. Before I continue a short timeline of events.

• August, 2013: Russia blocks all imports into Russia for stepped up inspections. A Russian economic advisor states it will be permanent if Ukraine signed an agreement with the European Union.

• November 21st, 2013: Russia threatens stiff trade sanctions if Ukraine signs a trade pact with the E.U. Ukraine suspends its plans to enter trade pact provoking weeks of street protests in Kiev with protesters shouting  that Ukraine is part of Europe.

• January 31st, 2014: Dmytro Bulatov, an activist on the part of the opposition was found after missing for about a week and a half pretty badly beaten. This raises suspicion and fear that extrajudicial squads that are pro-Russia have been created to crush the opposition.

• February 16th, 2014: 234 jailed protesters are released, and in exchange the opposition activists end their occupation of Kiev City Hall.

• February 18th, 2014: 26 people are killed (of which include 10 police officers), with hundreds more injured. This began after parliament stalled on taking up constitutional reformation that would have limited presidential powers, thus, protesters set fires and attacked police lines. To make matters worse, the opposition suspect that Yanukovych has made a pact with Moscow, thus taking a stand against the opposition.

• February 20th, 2014: President Viktor Yanukovych flees the capital, and the opposition successfully occupies the Presidential house.

For a more in depth look, you can check out the New York Times, and Boston.com.

Now that you have the backstory here is the point. Ukraine is not that important. The only reason this issue exists is because President Putin clings to the idea that Russia must be a superpower and he knows this is impossible if Ukraine becomes close to the E.U. So Putin being the lovable sociopath that he is forced Ukraine to choose between the E.U. and Russia, and since Ukraine’s population is over 35% ethnic Russian, this put Ukraine, already a fragile state, in an impossible position.

So, then why is this not important? Because Russia is a dying nation. Russia should be a near perfect position, with its vast mineral wealth, strategic location, and huge diplomatic network all over the world. Instead of Russia leveraging its vast mineral wealth for massive foreign investment as any other normal country would do Russia is squandering it on a vast, inefficient and corrupt state. So instead of Russia’s economy barreling through the world markets, it is mired in an out of date infrastructure, and instead of a foreign policy devoted to increasing trade and forming strong alliances it is forced to keep the ones it has with the bullying tactics and the support of brutal regimes.

In short: Russia can cause problems in its neighborhood, Russia can spoil U.S. and E.U. foreign policy, but it cannot do what Putin desperately wants to do, which is be a superpower.